Seth Davis looks at the ways each team in the Final 4 can beat Kentucky and lays out a point by point of each thing that needs to happen.
I’m not much on looking ahead to the championship just yet, so here is how Davis thinks Louisville can pull the upset.
[I][B]How Louisville Can Beat Kentucky[/B]
[/I][LEFT][I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana][B]1. Control the pace.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana]These teams are more plodding than their reputations would lead you to believe. According to Kenpom.com, the Cardinals are ranked 125th in the country in tempo; Kentucky is 160th. Still, Louisville is the one that really needs to keep the pace slow and possessions low. That means employing the early-and-late strategy on offense. If the Cardinals can get a transition bucket and score early in the shot clock, they should do it. If they can’t, they should run some clock. The last thing the Cardinals want is for Kentucky to get its fast break going. Once UK starts running, the Wildcats will be going downhill all night.[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana]The best way to manage pace is to take care of the basketball. On that front the Cardinals have shown some promise — but only lately. During the season they ranked 217th in the country in turnover percentage. During the NCAA tournament, however, they have committed 15 fewer turnovers than their opponents. Against Florida’s vaunted fullcourt pressure, Louisville coughed it up just six times. Point guard Peyton Siva has committed 12 turnovers to go along with 28 assists in these four games. So they’ve proven they can do it. Whether they do it on Saturday is still a question.[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
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[B]2. Shoot lights out.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana]It’s ironic that on the 25th anniversary of the year Rick Pitino’s Providence Friars rode the three-point shot to the Final Four (in New Orleans, naturally), he has brought one of the worst-shooting teams he has ever had back to the Big Easy. This season, the Cardinals made just 31.7 percent of their three-point attempts, which was ranked 14th in the Big East and 272nd in the country. During the NCAA tournament, they have made 39 percent — much of that coming courtesy of the two Smiths, Chris and Russ. (Or as Pitino calls him, Russ-diculous, in deference to his shot selection.)[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana]Can they keep that up? Hard to say. But if they do, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
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[B]3. Hope.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana]The Cardinals will enjoy a huge psychological advantage in this game — and they know it. Nobody expected them to be here. Everybody expected Kentucky to be here. Louisville’s fans are thrilled their team is playing in this game. Kentucky’s fans are panicked their team might lose it.[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#000000][FONT=verdana]John Calipari knows it’s pointless to tell his players to tune out all of these externals. They’re too wired in. That wouldn’t be such a concern if this weren’t such a young team, but there’s no telling how 19- and 20-year-old kids will perform under this kind of duress.[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
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So Louisville’s best strategy is to hope the young Cats succumb to the pressure and play terribly. It’s hard to make shots when you can’t breathe.[/FONT][/COLOR][/I][/LEFT]
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