Before we start, let me say that I’m glad yesterday’s article [URL=”http://www.nationofblue.com/what-kentucky-needs-do-win-today-10645/”]vanished[/URL]. In it, I said all Kentucky would have to do to beat Vandy was make it to the arena on time. I wasn’t intending it as a slight against Vanderbilt, I was just predicting a dominant UK performance, along with an 18-point win. Neither happened. While Kentucky didn’t play poorly by any means, Vanderbilt played much better than I expected them to, and made it one heck of a good game. But, since that article technically doesn’t exist, there’s no way to prove that I was ever wrong.
Now, on to some bad news. I’m sure you’ve seen all the stats this week, many of them dug up by [URL=”http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ukbeat/2012/02/24/does-uk-need-to-lose-to-win-it-all/”]Kyle Tucker and Brett Dawson[/URL], saying that, historically speaking, Kentucky would be better served with another loss before the NCAA tournament. Tucker noted that if Kentucky were to win out, it would be the longest winning streak (31 games) for a champion since the undefeated Indiana team went 32-0 in 1976. I’m not sure they need a loss, but at the very least they need a few more scares. The two close games this week will hopefully pay in spades come April. (On a side note, you need to follow Kyle on Twitter [URL=”https://twitter.com/#!/KyleTucker_CJ”]@kyletucker_cj[/URL] if you aren’t doing so already. He’s great for stats and tidbits, and is one of the best at tweeting during a game. Brett is [URL=”https://twitter.com/#!/BDawsonRivals”]@BDawsonRivals[/URL], and he’s a good follow also. I’m trying to get him to fight me.)
But here’s the thing: I was curious about how the #1 team in February does in March and April, so I took a gander. I didn’t like what I saw.
Using the very cool [URL=”http://www.collegepollarchive.com/mbasketball/index.cfm”]College Poll Archive[/URL] site, I did a check of every #1 team in the last week of February going back to 1999, since that’s the season after Kentucky last won it all. Here’s what I found:
Of the 13 teams ranked #1 in the AP in the last week of February since 1999, only four of them made the Final Four.
None of them won the title.
Here’s a recap (NOTE: this only accounts for the AP poll.):
1999- Duke (lost in final)
2000- Stanford (lost in second round)
2001- Stanford (lost in Elite Eight)
2002- Kansas (lost in Final Four)
2003- Arizona (lost in Sweet Sixteen)
2004- Stanford (lost in second round)
2005- Illinois (lost in final)
2006- Duke (lost in Sweet Sixteen)
2007- Ohio St (lost in final)
2008- Tennessee (lost in Elite Eight)
2009- Pitt (lost in Sweet Sixteen)
2010- Syracuse (lost in Sweet Sixteen)
2011- Ohio St (lost in Sweet Sixteen)
For the sake of comparison, here’s where each of the NCAA champions since 1999 have been in the polls the last week of February:
1999 UConn- 4th
2000 Michigan St- 7th
2001 Duke- 2nd
2002 Maryland- 2nd
2003 Syracuse- 15th
2004 UConn- 8th
2005 UNC- 2nd
2006 Florida- 17th
2007 Florida- 5th
2008 Kansas- 6th
2009 UNC- 4th
2010 Duke- 5th
2011 UConn- 16th
That’s an average ranking of 7th, and the most common ranking is 2nd. Now, I have no clue what happened in the years before that, although the 1996 title team was ranked 1st, the 1998 team was 7th, and the 1997 runner-up was 2nd.
There have been plenty of comparisions to that legendary ’96 team all season, so here’s one more:
The 2012 Kentucky Wildcats have a chance to be the first team in 16 years to win the title after being ranked #1 at the end of February.
Thoughts?
