When it’s all said and done, this UK team will go down as one of those most talented teams to ever play college basketball. Sheer domination has been the name of their game all year long. UK has outscored every team they’ve played by an average of 17 points. They can drive to the basket, they can pass, every player can virtually lead the fast break and they shoot the 3 ball at a 38% clip. There’s not much this team can’t do or really needs to worry about. But there is one thing UK needs to be cautious about. Louisville does one thing better than any team in the NCAA and that is turning teams over.
Louisville is being labeled the “Scrappy kids from Louisville”. There’s a reason for that label. They have an incredibly pesky defense. Where they lack in overall size they make up for with quick hands and even quicker feet. Louisville turns their opponents over an average of 15 times per game. That’s impressive considering UK only forces 11 turnovers per game and yet it is UK that is perceived as the best defensive team in the nation. This year the Cardinals have forced 8 teams to turn the ball over at least 20 or more times. Recently they played Marquette, a top 15 ranked team, in the Big East tourney and they forced them into an outstanding 26 turnovers.
One of those 8 teams to reach 20+ turnovers against Louisville was the mighty Kentucky Wildcats. On New Year’s Eve Louisville and their high intensity full court press forced the Cats into 21 turnovers. That matched a season high total for Kentucky as they had 21 to’s against ODU early in the season. However since then, UK has only averaged 10.1 turnovers leading up to the Battle of the Bluegrass Final Four rematch.
UK should expect the same type of defense this time, but 2 fold. Rick has what seems like 24 scholarship players and there’s not that big of a difference from 1-9 on that roster. So I expect him to plug fresh bodies in to keep UK on their heels. UK only goes 8 deep and Vargas and Wiltjer aren’t exactly the best ball handlers on the team.
The other key for Kentucky is to not let Teague get in foul trouble. Teague is a one man press breaker. He showed it against Louisville by handling the ball the entire game facing crazy intense pressure and yet he only turned it over 4 times. Darius Miller and Lamb, who helped Teague bring up the ball while he was on the bench both combined for 12 of the team’s 21 turnovers. I certainly don’t expect Miller to just throw the ball at the scorer’s table like last time, so my only concern is Lamb in his relief role as back up pg.
If Kentucky keeps the turnovers under 15 and shoot an equal amount of free throws as Louisville they win walking away. Louisville will not out-shoot Kentucky or score more points in the paint, so the only thing to keep an eye on really is the turnovers. Will Kentucky’s ball management be better than Louisville’s pressure? Saturday can’t get here soon enough.
