As we prepare for the Cats to host the Vols, I’m trying to have a positive attitude. The Cat’s haven’t lost at Rupp since Calipari came to UK. But I also know that Kentucky should have beaten teams like Georgia and Mississippi regardless of where they played, so maybe there is a statistic or obvious flaw that we’re not seeing.
[URL=”http://www.nationofblue.com/road-games-s-not-freshmen-5060/”]In an earlier article[/URL], I had postulated that it’s not the freshmen who are struggling. Knight, Jones and Lamb are all averaging double figures and tend to score even more on the road, it’s the upperclassmen whose production seems to be reduced on the road (based on average PPG home vs. road). One of the comments I read after the article questioned my choice of stats, so I reviewed some other statistics to see if I could find a common denominator: a smoking gun if you will.
Unfortunately there is no smoking gun. There is no ‘one thing’ the Cats lose from every road game, in fact it seems like each game brings its own unique issues. I looked for a stat in each game that stood out as wildly different between the Cats and their opponents.
[LIST]
[*]At Georgia it was free throws. The Dogs attempted 34 free throws, making 30 of them. The Cats only attempted 16 free throws (by contrast, when the Dogs came to Rupp the foul shot attempts were 21 and 25 respectively – what does that tell you about the foul calling at Georgia?).
[*]At Alabama it was shooting. The Tide shot 46% from the field (50% from long range). The Cats shot 38% (33% from long range). Off night for the Cats or great defense by the Tide?
[*]At South Carolina (the only road game the Cats have won), both teams’ stats are remarkably similar except for free throw percentages. If South Carolina had made their free-throws, it would have been anybody’s game.
[*]At Mississippi it was turnovers. Kentucky had 18 turnovers compared to the Rebels’ 11. The only thing that kept it close was Kentucky’s rebounding edge (35 to 24) and the Rebs’ poor shooting (43% vs. the Cats’ 50%) – otherwise, it could have gotten ugly. Again, off night for the Cats or stout Mississippi defense?
[*]At Florida, it was free throws again. The Gators attempted 22 free throws, making 18 of them. The Cats only attempted 13 free throws. Of course at Florida, the other glaring statistic was that Doron Lamb had only 5 points (1 of 5 shooting and 2 free throws). I guess when we talk about things that the Cats need to do to win, we should include that none of the freshmen can have an off day.
[/LIST]I suppose the takeaway from all of this is: I still feel good about the Cats’ chances come tournament time. Neutral games will not have the obvious foul discrepancies of the Georgia and Florida games. The problem the Cats are going to have is against stout defenses like Alabama and Mississippi. Kentucky is going to have to learn to hold on to the ball better and shoot better in the face of a defender – not depending on a foul to bail them out when they miss. Hopefully that’s something Cal can teach them between now and then.
