Duke is currently 5th in the AP poll and UK is 18th
Duke lost at North Carolina last night to put their season record at 20-6 and 10-3 in conference. Kentucky currently has a 21-6 record and is also 10-3 in conference play. It seems like a perfect time to compare the performances of the two teams this season. If you only pay attention to the polls and listen to the national media you would come away with the idea that Duke is well above UK. A little deeper look at the numbers reveals that there may not be much difference between the two. As a matter of fact it seems to reveal what appears to be inconsistency among poll voters and national media.
The comparison of RPI numbers is interesting between the teams.
Team RPI Strength of Schedule vs RPI top 25 vs 26-50 vs 51-100 combined vs 1-100
Kentucky 11th 4th 0-3 2-1 10-2 12-6
Duke 10th 10th 3-4 1-0 4-1 8-5
To Duke’s credit they have faced 7 top 25 RPI teams and won 3 games compared to UK’s 0-3. That leads to some of the perception that Duke has played a tougher schedule although in reality the Cats have played 18 games against the RPI top 100 compared to just 13 for Duke. That is why Kentucky has strength of schedule that is 6 spots ahead of the Bluedevils.
When breaking down each teams six losses the teams remain close
UK losses Duke losses
Michigan St RPI 15 Kansas RPI 1
Baylor RPI 44 Arizona RPI 2
North Carolina RPI 21 Notre Dame RPI 115
Arkansas RPI 69 Clemson RPI 70
LSU RPI 66 Syracuse RPI 7
Florida RPI 3 North Carolina RPI 21
Average RPI 36 Average RPI 36
Kentucky has five games left on the schedule and the combined RPI of those teams is 86. Compare that to Duke who was 4 games left against teams with a combined RPI of 87. The pair is neck and neck in almost any category you look at and in several the Cats have a slight edge. Yet the voters and national media continue to paint a much brighter picture than they do for UK. Whether it is a bias towards Duke, a dislike of Cal, or a combination of the two there is no question that the numbers tell the truth. Kentucky is being downplayed and Duke is being over hyped.
Duke will likely beat Syracuse on Saturday which will mean that they will not fall in the rankings at all due to last night’s loss. It is more likely that they will actually rise in the polls when they are released on Monday. Kentucky will likely sit 10 spots below the Bluedevils despite a week with two solid wins at Ole Miss and against LSU. Truth be told John Calipari probably likes it that way because no coach loves to be disrespected and overlooked more than Cal. He would love nothing more than to tell his team that the world is against them and that they have to go out and prove everyone wrong.
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