I’m sure you’ve heard by now, Kentucky plays Louisville today. On New Year’s Eve. For all the hot brown. For bragging rights. To which I say resoundingly:
[B]Meh[/B].
Sorry, but I just can’t get into it this year. Now, I’m sure once the game starts, I’ll be right there, swearing and huffing and puffing and making empty threats wrapped in nonsense. (I once threatened to throw rocks at Sheray Thomas’ mother for smoking while she was pregnant with him, even though I have no clue who she is, I have horrible aim, and I wouldn’t do that anyway. Besides, I’m sure she didn’t smoke.)
Still, I’m not feeling the pregame hype like I usually do. There are probably a couple reasons for this.
For starters, I don’t buy into the belief that Louisville is a top-tier team this year. Play a road game, then get back to me. There was a wonderful tweet I saw this week that went like this: [I]UL players on Saturday: “What is this?” Equipment manager: “It’s an away jersey.”[/I]
Granted, Kentucky has played the majority of its games at home, but handled Kansas on a neutral court, and fell on the road to an Indiana team that needed an A+ game, a piss-poor UK effort, and a last-second shot to win. I still say if that game was in Rupp, Kentucky wins by at least 10.
Aside from UL being overrated, there’s this: in 1997, Kentucky lost, at home, to Louisville by 3. A few months later, they won it all. Would I trade a loss today for a national title?
Absolutely.
Having said that, I neither want Kentucky to lose, nor do I expect them to. I’m just saying I’m looking at the big picture this year much more than usual.
If today’s game was being played in Louisville, I’d pick the Cards to win, and I wouldn’t be a bit upset. But since it’s at Rupp, I’d like to see the home winning streak hold up. And because it’s a home game, I don’t think Kentucky has a problem taking care of business.
So what should we expect today? It’s gonna be a physical, emotional game, as always. But unless Louisville comes out and catches fire from behind the line (which is a distinct possibility; this is a Kentucky game, after all), I don’t think they can pull it off.
Kentucky matches up well at every position. Anthony Davis gives up only 15 pounds to Gorgui Dieng, and they are both averaging close to 11 and 10, with the ability to block shots. Call this a wash.
Marquis Teague on Peyton Siva doesn’t concern me either. Siva is averaging more assists, but Teague is much quicker. Siva won’t be shut down, but he won’t have a field day, either. I can see Teague pressing more than usual, given that he originally committed to Louisville but ended up at Kentucky. If he can play within his ability (read: blow by his man to make layups), this game gets much easier for UK.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on Kyle Kuric is a laugher. Assuming MKG guards him the entire game, Kuric will be a non-factor. However, if Siva gets hot, MKG may have to switch over to him.
Chris Smith and Doron Lamb will be an interesting matchup. Both are capable of catching fire, and neither is considered a lockdown defender. Kentucky needs Doron to be on his game today.
Chane Behanan and Terrence Jones will be fun to watch as well. Jones has the pinky thing going on, so I’m anxious to see how that affects him today, especially in what is sure to be a physical game. I’m not too concerned about Behanan. And believe it or not, I think Kentucky can win this game without Terrence being a contributor.
To me, MKG is the X-factor. We know he is looking forward to this game, if for no other reason than the physicality of it. If he can avoid his habit of early foul trouble, Kentucky wins. Darius Miller will also make an impact today. It’s his last go round in this rivalry, and he’s been solid so far this year.
You know who may make some noise early today? Eloy Vargas. If Jones’ pinky limits him, Eloy is a good candidate to come in and bang. Look for him to make an impact, even if it is a small one.
Kyle Wiltjer is more of a question mark. He is capable of getting 20 points, or he may not play 5 minutes. It all depends on how aggressive he is willing to be.
In Louisville’s loss to Georgetown on Wednesday, the backcourt did it all. The frontcourt was non-existent, which tells me if Kentucky can keep Behanan and Dieng in check, they will win. Still, it seems like there’s always an unsung hero in this game. Last year, it was Harrellson, and he let the momentum from the game carry him through the rest of the season and into the NBA. So who will it be this year? My money is on Kyle Wiltjer.
So, to recap: keep the bigs in check, defend the 3-pointer (here’s a stat for you: Louisville hits an average of 6 per game; they attempt 19), and keep MKG out of foul trouble.
Come to think of it, I’m pumped for this game after all.
Cats by 6.
