Don’t let the title mislead you; I’m fully aware the season has started. But I get soooo bored with non-conference play. Confession: Aside from the Kansas, UNC, Indiana and Louisville games, and the 2 games I attended for the site, I bet I didn’t watch 3 complete halves of Kentucky basketball. Sure, I listened on the radio, and kept up via Twitter and ESPN, but I don’t have it in me to sit and watch Kentucky play one crappy team after another, often underwhelming us in the process.
Here’s some math for you. After several seconds of laborious study, I’ve devised a formula that shows us how Kentucky will play against a non-conference team. It looks like this:
[I]
(random team y * Vegas betting line) + ( MKG’s stats/minutes Marquis Teague plays) – (Terrence Jones’ good games/Terrence Jones’ bad games) = holygeezthesegamesareboringcanwePLEEEEASEgettoconferenceplaysometimesoonbeforeIstickaspooninmyeyewatchingUKstruggleagainsttheThelmaJeanGarbonskySchoolforUnderpriviligedChildrenofIndustrialMigrantWorkers
[/I]
[I][SIZE=1]”…and then you get the square root of his assist-to-turnover ratio.”[/SIZE][/I]
Of course, that isn’t a scientific formula just yet, I may have to tweak it. Moving on…
Assuming I ever had a point, let’s get back to it: I’m glad to see conference play begin today. If I were any happier about this, I’d have to sit on my hands to keep from clapping, which would, in turn, prevent me from writing this article. I’m sure some of you wouldn’t mind that too much.
So what should we expect from SEC play this year? Let’s take a look.
For starters, just mark up the 8 home games as a win. I’m sure one or two teams will play Kentucky closer than expected (my money’s on Alabama), but this team won’t be losing at home this year. I can see the Florida home game being a surprisingly big win, although I’m sure I’ll hedge on this thought completely once that game gets here.
So what about the road? In the West, the Cats play Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and LSU. Call it 3-0. I don’t have any faith in Rick Stansbury this year. That leaves the 5 East teams. South Carolina and Tennessee are wins, and Georgia is lackluster so far, though they are capable of making some noise in conference. Still, a win.
That leaves Vandy and Florida. Vandy has already lost 3 home games, but Kentucky is the only team the crowd gets up for anyway, so I’m sure it will be a struggle. I can see this being a loss, because this team has to lose one somewhere. Might as well be Vandy. On the flip side of that, the game isn’t until February, and at that point there is a chance Marquis Teague will have remembered he has 4 teammates on the floor at any given time. Once this happens, Kentucky gets exponentially better.
As for Florida, they are undefeated at home this year, and this game is Senior Day for the Gators (On a related note, Erving Walker is a senior already? How?), so the O-dome will be rocking. Unless the crowd is glad to see Erving Walker leave. Maybe he has a bad habit of farting in a crowd, or licking his finger and sticking it in people’s ears. Still, Kentucky wins.
[SIZE=1][I]Pictured: a metaphor for everything about Florida.[/I][/SIZE]
But if they win at Vandy, they lose this one, because I refuse to admit the team is good enough to only lose one game on the season. I’d feel much better if they had a loss before the post-season starts. If they sweep the SEC, I’m going to openly root for them to lose in the conference tournament.
Kentucky gets it all started this evening against South Carolina. Look for them to follow the tradition of playing like crap early, then shutting the Gamecocks down in the second half.
Some things to watch for: the rebounding battle. USC’s leading rebounder gets 5.1 a game. Kentucky has 3 guys getting at least 6, and Davis grabs nearly 11 a game himself, although today he’ll have about 15.
Kentucky has an overall size advantage, although Demontre Harris is getting 2 blocks a game for Carolina. If he guards Terrence Jones today, he’ll have about 4. On a related note, hey Terrence Jones, PUMP FAKE! Do an up and under! Anything!
Also, Marquis Teague will try to show off, and he will suck for a while. Is anyone opposed to the idea of Teague sitting for a game or two, just to send him a message? I’m not. The kid is talented, but he doesn’t quite get it at this point. Let him ride the pine, and play Twany Beckham. If we lose, so be it, as long as it’s a road game. Which today isn’t, so play him, I guess.
But Kentucky would win anyway. Cats by whatever the spread is (21), minus about 5.
Call it 83-67. Brian Long will once again fail to get a triple-double.
