Matt Norlander has a piece for CBS Sports taking a look at the teams in the Final Four using the mind boggling metrics of Ken Pomeroy, who is a mad scientist of basketball stats. Basically, in a nut shell, long story short, what he is really saying, if you get down to heart of it, is…UK is REALLY good.
Here’s a look.
[I][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial]And here’s where we really see Kentucky’s dominance. It leads in all but three categories, and the distance between[/FONT][/COLOR][URL=”http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/KY/kentucky-wildcats”]Kentucky[/URL][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial] and [/FONT][/COLOR][URL=”http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/OHST/ohio-state-buckeyes”]Ohio State[/URL][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial] is greater than the subsequent gaps between OSU and Kansas and [/FONT][/COLOR][URL=”http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/KS/kansas-jayhawks”]Kansas[/URL][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial] and [/FONT][/COLOR][URL=”http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/LOU/louisville-cardinals”]Louisville[/URL][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial] . Here’s the average overall ranking for each team when you combine their place in each category:[/FONT][/COLOR]
[B]Kentucky: 1.7[/B]
[B]Ohio State: 2.3[/B]
[B]Kansas: 2.8[/B]
[B]Louisville: 3.2[/B]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial]There’s a reason why [/FONT][/COLOR][URL=”http://www.nsawins.com/college-basketball-futures-betting-odds.shtml”]the Vegas odds on who will win the title[/URL][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial] are congruent with that order. The Wildcats are easily scoring the most points per possession, have the best-shooting team in the field, the best defensive team against shooting and turn teams over more than anyone else. When you examine this, it’s even harder to believe that Kentucky won’t win it all.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial]But games to come aren’t won on any type of stat sheet; this only reflects the past. It’s a very positive reflection on UK, when you consider that Ohio State and Kansas are also incredibly good teams. Ironically, the weakling of the group, Louisville, leads in two categories, while Kansas doesn’t stand above all others in any of the Four Factors on either side of the ball.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial]Other, tangible impact on the teams’ play will be factors — even big, deciding ones — on Saturday and Monday. At least with this essential data, you can understand why it’s not a real mistake that each of these teams reached New Orleans. Defense is massively important. ([/FONT][/COLOR][URL=”http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2012/story/_/id/7718988/2012-ncaa-tournament-makes-ideal-final-four-team”]Eamonn Brennan did the historical research on this[/URL][COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial] in the tempo-free era and found the evidence.) Each of these teams are ranked in the top 11, and in fact it’s Kentucky, at No. 11, who is the least-effective in points per possession allowed. [/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial]I’ve trumpeted all year that UK O > UK D, and if John Calipari falls short of winning a title again, it’s not going to be because the Wildcats couldn’t find a way to score. At least in the big picture. (Don’t mistake a team missing its final three shots for meaning it’s not a dominant offensive team.) [/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=arial]There are exceptions, but in recent years, the No. 1 KenPom.com team has walked to the team bus as the national champs. UNC in ’05; Florida the year after; Kansas in ’08; UNC in ’09; and Duke over Butler two years ago. The aberrations come, but they’re only that: aberrations. All signs indicate a Kentucky title, and if we don’t get it, all the better. When the numbers lie we can always learn more. [/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
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