Michael Calabrese of Action Network says in the New York Post to bet on favored Florida this afternoon.
Calabrese says his pick is based on rebounding, pointing out that only three teams in the entire country grab more offensive boards per game than Florida (14.6).
Here is an excerpt:
So why am I stepping off of the Big Blue bandwagon now? Rebounding, pure and simple.
Kentucky checks in at 232nd in offensive rebound percentage and 176th in rebound margin after dominating the glass for years, thanks to Oscar Tshiebwe. This deficiency leaves the Wildcats extremely vulnerable on the defensive end when they’re facing teams that are adept at getting second-chance buckets.
Florida fits that bill and then some. Only three teams in the entire country grab more offensive boards per game than Florida (14.6). The frontcourt tandem of former Seton Hall Pirate Tyrese Samuel and Micah Handlogten are going to get a lot of easy put-backs in this game. If Kentucky can surrender 24 offensive rebounds to Illinois State, the roof really could fall in on it here.
And because I mentioned backcourts at the onset, let’s discuss Florida’s. The Gators are the only power conference team in America to start four guards who all average north of 11 points.
Zyon Pullin has really come into his own since transferring in from UC Riverside. The uber-talented wing is averaging 17 points, five assists and four rebounds on 59 percent shooting from the field across his last three games.
Rob Dillingham goes up for a dunk during Kentucky’s 96-70 win over Illinois State earlier in the season.
Rob Dillingham goes up for a dunk during Kentucky’s 96-70 win over Illinois State earlier in the season.
AP
The Gators proved early in the season in a 95-91 loss to Baylor that they can hang with a run-and-gun team, so Kentucky’s preferred pace doesn’t scare me in this matchup.
And then there’s the O’Dome. When Florida is healthy and playing at a high level, its home floor is as intimidating as any in college basketball. Before Colin Castleton went down with an injury last winter, Florida dismantled No. 2 Tennessee at home. That’s the kind of magic that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in Gainesville.
I believe this will be Todd Golden’s marquee win of the season and would play Florida up to a full possession as a favorite.
Recommendation: Florida -3.
